First the good news. In her unprecedented satellite forum at the University of Santo Tomas, the first time for a sitting US secretary of state to do a live public interview on Philippine television and before students and academicians of key universities across the Philippines, Hillary Clinton signalled a major American policy shift on Mindanao: any peace accord with the Moro Islamic Liberation Front would have to conform to the Philippine Constitution.

Now the bad news. Clinton urged in the same forum that the Philippine government and the MILF forge an accord before President Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo steps down next year. “Strike while the iron is hot,” she said. She cited the case of her own husband, former President Bill Clinton, who had been pushing for a Middle East accord before he stepped down in 2001 but failed because of the recalcitrance of the protagonists. It was only when the next US administration came in, Hillary said, that Yasser Arafat of the Palestine Liberation Organization started to press for an accord, but by that time, it was too late: the hawkish George W. Bush government would have none of it and, in fact, worsened the prospects for Middle East peace with its Iraq adventure.

To be sure, the analogy between Mindanao and the Middle East is a false one. None of the presidential aspirants hoping to succeed Arroyo (with the exception of Joseph Estrada) would risk shooting down any peace initiative or accord with the MILF. None of them is a hawk or considers oil prospecting a key foreign-policy pillar like the Texan Bush. And certainly Gloria Arroyo is not a Bill Clinton, even though they were classmates in Georgetown.

When one considers that the initial accord between the government and the MILF was struck down by the Supreme Court for being unconstitutional, then one could see that Ms Arroyo’s efforts at pushing for peace before she steps down as self-redemptive and ultimately self-serving. The accord would have radically redrawn the map of Mindanao and Balkanized it roughly into a Christian West and a Muslim East, which would be tantamount to a land-for-peace swap. It would have required a constitutional overhaul that would certainly be rife for a constitutional crisis and even violence and further conflict.

Now that the accord had been thrown into the trash bin by the high court, Ms Arroyo is making renewed efforts at Mindanao peace not out of any sense of altruism but to shore up her legacy. And it’s not as if she’s leaving a legacy for a graceful exit. She hopes to use it as a trump card to get elected as member and later speaker of the House of Representatives.

When one considers that she wants to head the Legislative Branch after heading the Executive, one would understand why she would be pushing for an accord. What would stop her from citing the need to rewrite a peace accord that had been concluded during her presidential watch? What would stop her from revamping the Constitution to accommodate the MILF and to change the form of government so that the speaker could become the head of parliament and prime minister of the government?

Someone who created the problem cannot become part of the solution.

Hillary Clinton should be reminded that America’s intentions aren’t at all a product of sheer altruism. The involvement of US Ambassador Kristie Kenney in the old accord is well known. Why would America risk the Balkanization of Mindanao that would be a recipe for violence? Answer: Quite possibly because it would entail the rewriting of the Constitution to do away with the anti-nuclear provision which would allow the US to establish bases in General Santos City (the recipient of generous USAID funds) and elsewhere while improving US relations with predominantly Islamic Southeast Asia, and enhance the US military presence in the resource-rich and very strategic region.

To be sure, Clinton’s first visit to Southeast Asia as secretary of state was not to the Philippines, however much the US claims “special relations” with its former colony in Asia, but rather Indonesia. Filipinos may always romance their alleged special relations with Uncle Sam, but geopolitics as dictated by American self-interest does not complement that. Christian Filipinos definitely want peace with Muslim Filipinos. But peace is peace and sellout is another thing.